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The $1.8 Trillion Space Goldmine (Hint: It’s Not Rockets)
Welcome back. Today, we’re unpacking a bold claim: The real returns in space aren’t just in rockets or space stations—It’s in space data and applications.
While we’re all dreaming of interplanetary travel, a quieter, more lucrative revolution is already underway, generating billions.
Let’s dive into the numbers and the players shaping this cosmic shift.
The Big Picture
Thanks to SpaceX and Blue Origin, launch costs have plummeted—down to as low as $2,600 per kg for SpaceX’s Falcon 9, compared to $30,000+ per kg for NASA’s Space Shuttle in the ‘90s.
Cheaper access has unleashed a wave of innovation.
But here’s the kicker: McKinsey forecasts the space economy could hit $1.8 trillion by 2035, with 60-70% of that value tied to data and applications—not the rockets themselves.
Why Does It Matter?
Satellites and applications are already rewiring how we live:
- Agriculture: Planet Labs’ 200+ satellites deliver daily imagery, helping farmers boost yields by up to 20% through precision irrigation and drought detection.
- Climate: Maxar’s tech tracks 80% of global deforestation in real time, while NASA says satellite data cut CO2 emissions monitoring costs by 50% since 2010.
- Defense: BlackSky’s constellation spots troop movements with 1-meter resolution, refreshing every 90 minutes—vital for national security.
- Weather: Hedge funds are shelling out $1M+ annually for weather modeling talent, using satellite data to game futures markets. Goldman Sachs estimates this edge could yield 5-10% higher returns.
This isn’t sci-fi—it’s today’s profit machine. One that is changing the world.
The Shift
The barrier to entry is crumbling. Cubesats now cost as little as $100K to build and launch—down from $100M (the cost of a large, traditional satellite) a decade ago—thanks to miniaturization and rideshare missions.
Startups like Spire Global operate 100+ cubesats, delivering weather and maritime data at scale.
Privateer’s Alex Fielding nails it: space imagery is “resold a million times,” echoing how GPS morphed from military tech to Pokémon Go.
The Losers (or Pivoters)
Not everyone’s keeping up:
- Rocket Lab: They’ve launched 50+ rockets since 2017. But their hardware-first focus (95% of income) risks missing the data boom. Their Neutron rocket, due 2026, aims for bigger payloads, but data services lag—only 5% of revenue so far. Pivot potential: high.
- Relativity Space: Their 3D-printed Terran R is ambitious, targeting 2026. They’ve raised $1.3B, valuing them at $4.2B, but axing Terran 1 after one failed launch in 2023 shows hardware struggles. Data plays? Nonexistent yet—90% of their focus is still manufacturing.
- Astra: Rough road. After a 2022 orbital success, launch failures and cash burn slashed their market cap to $50M by 2024. They’re shifting to space services, with a $20M NASA contract for data-driven missions, but it’s a long climb.
These players aren’t dead, but they’re at a crossroads. Data’s where the high margins live—hardware’s a grind.
Who’s Winning?
Follow the data, follow the margins:
- Privateer: Co-founded by Apple legend Steve Wozniak, they acquired Orbital Insight in 2023, merging geospatial analytics with space data. Their SaaS-like model tracks everything from shipping lanes to disaster zones. In 2024, they secured $56M in funding, eyeing a $500M valuation—small but scalable.
- Planet Labs: With 200+ satellites, they image Earth daily at 3-meter resolution. Revenue hit $220M in 2024, up 15% year-over-year, fueled by a $95M California contract and deals with 50+ governments. Their market cap sits at $700M—undervalued for their reach.
- Maxar: A heavyweight in Earth intelligence, Maxar’s 2024 revenue topped $1.8B, with 60% from defense and intel contracts. Their WorldView satellites offer 31-cm resolution—sharp enough to count cars. They’re projecting $2B+ by 2026.
- SpaceX: Untouchable. In Q1 2025, they launched 35 rockets (33 Falcon 9s, 2 Starships), outpacing entire nations. Starlink’s 6,000+ satellites serve 2.7M users, generating $6B annually—half of SpaceX’s $12B 2024 haul. Valuation? A cool $350B.
These data miners are cashing in while others chase hardware glory.
Don’t agree? Join the conversation.
Venture Verdict — Episode 2 Recap!
The courtroom was back in session yesterday on 𝕏 for Episode 2 of Venture Verdict X-Spaces, and the stakes were higher than ever.
Darren Marble returned as host, joined once again by our presiding judge, legendary investor Cyan Banister, and sharp contender Sara Ledterman from 3+ Ventures.
Cyan Banister shared exclusive insights about her recent appearance on the All-In Podcast and revealed details about which member of the pod she would bring into her WW3 bunker.
Sara Ledterman called in live from Sugar Bowl Lake Tahoe, taking a break from her annual ski retreat with the 3+ Ventures team to join the debate.
The Picks:
- ⚔️ Darren’s Pick: Rune Technologies, Defense tech startup revolutionizing military logistics. Rune recently raised $6.2M in seed funding to bring next-gen, tactical solutions to the U.S. military’s supply chain.
- ⚔️ Sara’s Pick: Gaia Dynamics, AI-driven solution tackling global tariffs and trade complexity—helping companies navigate the modern-day economic battlefield.
Missed it live? Catch the full replay on 𝕏 and watch two of the best minds in venture go head-to-head over defense tech, AI, and the future of global trade.
Join us next Thursday—same time, same place—for another unfiltered, high-stakes investment showdown.
